DYNAMIC EFFECTS IN MANUFACTURING OF A POSSIBLE ACCESSION OF UKRAINE TO THE EU

Nicholas Tsounis, George Polychronopoulos, Dimitrios Serenis

Анотація


Abstract. The paper presents quantitative estimates of the dynamic effects of a possible integration of Ukraine into the European Union (E.U.)4. The examination of the dynamic effects of integration has been made with the utilisation of an ex-ante model. The results found by the application of this model suggest that the accession of Ukraine in the EU would have mixed effects in the various sectors of the region. For thirty manufacturing sectors out of one hundred and twenty six sectors that have been included in the analysis, integration would be beneficial. The sector that would benefit the most from integration is manufacture of electronic valves and tubes. Other sectors where positive integration effects are expected are: publishing of books and other publications, basic chemicals except fertilizers, recycling of metal waste and scrap, basic iron and steel, cocoa, chocolate and sugar confectionery and textile fibre preparation, textile weaving for which, the total product of the region is expected to increase.
Key Words: EU, Ukraine, Dynamic Integration Effects


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